Slightly less than one-third (32.8%) of likely Illinois voters believe that US Senator Mark Kirk has recovered from his 2012 stroke enough to “perform to the fullest the job as US Senator,” according to a new poll released today by Victory Research, an independent polling firm based out of Chicago.
In a head to head matchup, the first-term Senator loses to his opponent, Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth by slightly more than ten percentage points (49.8%-39.1). Libertarian candidate Kent McMillen received 2.0% and Green Party candidate Scott Summers received 1.2%, while 7.9% of voters say they are undecided.
The poll of 1200 likely general election Illinois voters was conducted by live callers between October 16h and October 18th. Respondents answered on both land lines and cell phones. The margin of error is 2.83%. Victory Research is an independent polling group and has been conducting monthly polling about Illinois politics (The Illinois Poll) since 1999. More information can be found at www.illinoispolitics.webs.com.
Last week the Chicago Tribune endorsed Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth over the incumbent US Senator in his re-election bid. In part, according to the Tribune, their endorsement hinged on their belief that Senator Kirk has not recovered sufficiently from the stroke he suffered in 2012 to “perform to the fullest the job of a U.S. senator.”
Following the ballot question which asked likely voters which of the four Senate candidates they preferred, they then were asked, “As you may know, US Senator Mark Kirk suffered a stroke in 2012. His doctors say he has made a full cognitive recovery. As it relates to his job performance in the Senate, do you believe Mark Kirk has fully recovered, or do you believe Kirk can no longer perform to the fullest the job as US Senator.”
“In their endorsement, the Chicago Tribune addressed the 800 pound gorilla in the room,” Pollster Rod McCulloch said. “Until the Tribune addressed it, Mark Kirk’s health was an issue nobody really wanted to touch. It turns out a majority of the voters in Illinois agree with the Chicago Tribune on this issue.”
More than half of likely voters (53.4%) said that answered that they do not believe he can perform his job to the fullest. While there was a partisan divide on this question, only slightly more than half of self-identified Republican voters (54.5%) believe Kirk has “fully recovered.” Only 18.6% of self-identified Democrats and 30.3% of self-Independents agree with that sentiment.
Duckworth is also viewed favorable by more voters than Kirk. Duckworth is favored by 46.8% of likely voters, while Kirk is favored by 38.4%. Duckworth’s unfavorable rating is 27.1%, while Kirk’s is 33.3%.
Geographically, Duckworth holds a commanding lead in the City of Chicago (78.5%-12.3%). She also leads in Suburban Cook County (45.7%-42.4%), and in Central & Southern Illinois (46.9%-42.7%). Kirk leads in the normally Republican collar counties (49.7%-38.5%) and in Northwestern Illinois (45.8%-42.6%).