Kraków – The Cloth Hall – View from the south-east/ pl.wikipedia.org
Krakow Mass Murder Was Predictable, Preventable and an Expensive Tragedy
Authors: Robert John Zagar PhD MPH and Agata Karolina Szkotak Zagar MBA
The alleged gunman, Michael O., 24-year-old, Polish male, woodturner, from Ostrowiec Swietokrzyki, was an asocial, reclusive, withdrawn person who drew violent scenes of killing while in school. Obviously, neither the family nor school staff obtained the services needed for this person. Michael O. had firearms and practiced at a Staracjpwoce shooting range. He was wearing a bullet-resistance vest, carrying an AR-15 carbine and harbored far right ultranationalist ideologies. Forty-years ago, while working in the “first” juvenile court, Cook County Circuit Court-Juvenile Division, established in 1899, a prosecutor asked me, “where do these juvenile offenders end up?” I, fortunate to obtain a “court order” from the presiding judge, collected the largest data set globally and made 11-question surveys to find with 97% replicated accuracy and precision who is violence-prone. Five-years ago, retired US Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Russell Baker, CEO of Psynetix, who had 650 questions to “terminate” 780 foreign terrorists gave me thousands of numbers on 630 American mass murderers collected from 1936; 13investigators assessed spree-shooter characteristics in medical, police, press, school, and work open-source records from 1936 to April 15, 2021. The 9 categories of characteristics are: (1) demographics; (2) health; (3) mental health; (4) education; (5) employment; (6) warning signs; (7) abuse and criminal history; (8) crime scene; and (9) crime method. Within these 9-categories and 54- subcategories are 650 items that make up the characteristics of 630-spree-shooters and controls. The cost of each life lost is roughly $1Million to $4Million in direct and indirect expenses including lifetime earnings, and expense to try, judge and jail, the alleged offender. So doing simple addiction and multiplication, the Krakow mass murder cost $6Million to $24Million. Humans believe judgment is superior to statistical decision-making, yet repeatedly human decisions miss the mark. Horrendous events are the end result of human error. In some extreme cases many families are impacted. The United States spends $3Trillion yearly on violence. Homicide, mass-murder, overdosing, sex-offending, and suicide arise from a complex set of characteristics and events that no human mind, even a genius can possibly manage empirically. Calculating the cumulative interactions that arise from the complex set of characteristics and circumstances or situations, no human, can manage empirically. The millions of possibilities are beyond human mental capacity. Only computer tests and machine learning equations combine the characteristics, the circumstances, the situations and simultaneously compare the individual against millions in data bases to discover the high-risk person and prevent loss of life and expense. On the oldest and most popular psychological test, the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality (MMPI). there are 8 measures of deceiving or lying and in a Poisson’s distribution of 8 times 7 times 6 times 5 times 4 times 3 times 2 there are 40,320 ways to deceive or lie, which is why the MMPI is the best lie detector we have. Along with the 21,000-peer-reviewed-scientific-studies and 250-American federal and state appellate court case decisions (case law), the MMPI is the most objective, reliable, sensitive, specific and valid way to find the 1,000 brain mental illnesses listed in the Diagnostic Statistical Manual Fifth Edition or the International Classification of Diseases Tenth Edition. So multiplying, 40,320 ways to deceive or lie by 1,000 brain mental illnesses, results in 40,320,000 lying brain mental illness presentations. Domestic-terrorists, mass-murderers, and spree-shooters plague every country. People generally believe that they are capable of identifying individuals who are high-risk. The scientific evidence in human decision making demonstrates that they are generally not. In 128 of 136 empirical studies comparing clinical judgment versus actuarial assessment, there is the superiority of statistical decision making with computer tests and machine learning equations. In two hundred studies comparing human-decision making or clinical judgement with computer tests and machine learning equations, it is well established that there is a 60% significantly better accuracy for computer tests and machine learning equations Finally, there is nearly half-a-century of research consistent with proof that statistical, actuarial assessment as better, more economical, more objective, reliable, sensitive, specific, and valid with a 97% rate compared to clinical current approaches that on average are 39% accurate and precise. Background-credit checks find 25% of high risk, while interviews and judgment, 46% and health exams, 49%, cumulatively missing 59-60% of high-risk persons. Among 320,051 persons tested over 95 years, within 210 studies, there is a “seven-test-point violence profile. This “seven-point violence profile” includes measures of (1) violence potential, (2) deception lying), (3) suicidal-depression, (4) antisocial-behavior, (5) paranoia, (6) schizophrenic-thinking, and (7) alcoholism-addiction. To discover whether a person is of, high risk individual, one must use a machine learning equation with any measure of violence such as the Standard Predictor of Violence Potential with 11 items and the the MMPI-2 with 567 items for adults, or the MMPI-A with 468 items for teens to measure deception and brain mental illness. In a book, 124 Real Life Stories, I demonstrate that looking at 124 homicidal, serial killing, mass-murdering, sex-offending, suicide-completing, and overdosing, most were “lying, suicidal, violent, paranoid-schizophrenics.
Robert is a Northwestern University alumnus, economist, professor, psychologist, researcher, and statistician. His work, 1-Chicago-youth summer jobs program, prevented 1200 homicides and $5B in Allstate, Liberty Mutual, and State Farm Insurance victim payouts by diverting 346,655 high-risk with jobs, mentors, and anger management since 2008. Pope Francis’s Pontifical Commission Protecting Minors used his research to change canonical law to forbid clerical crime. Pope Francis appointed Chicago “Father Bob” to screen future promotions because the equation reports are only in English. D. Zagar’s 2 books, edited from 3500 to-2- 500-page volumes, “124 Real Life Stories” “Math and Science Finding High Risk Persons” are at amazon.com. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VJWCSTVkcvfGGJVA9_tAzHVqeSr45zfE/view?usp=sharingRobert’s dad, an original U.S. Navy Seal, served behind enemy lines during WWII in China (Sino American Cooperative Organization) from 1943 to 1945. His mom was a U.S. Navy Wave. Robert’s wife, Agata is an actress, banker, businesswoman, teacher, and triplet. Together Robert and Agata started a nonprofit charity, Society of the Friends of Radgoszcz, helping Malopolska. The Zagars live in Edgewater and are members of the Holy Name Cathedral Parish. Robert is both a U.S. and Polish citizen.
