It is plainly in Poland’s interest that the line of demarcation between Russia and Ukraine extend as far as possible from Poland’s eastern border, and that it be guarded by international forces – writes Professor Jacek CZAPUTOWICZ
It was not Poland’s Donald Tusk – prime minister of the country now holding the presidency of the European Union – but rather President Emmanuel Macron who rallied the countries willing to send peacekeeping forces to Ukraine. At the White House the French president confirmed that Europe is ready to provide security guarantees to Ukraine by deploying its forces once a peace treaty is signed. What he in fact was telling Donald Trump was, ‘Okay then! You said you had Russia’s agreement to deploy European forces, now prove it’. These forces are to be deployed inside Ukraine in order to guarantee the stability and security of the Ukrainian state. Donald Trump is sensitive to public opinion, so this offers a certain opportunity for Europe. An opportunity, I repeat – not a guarantee that the US will not sign an abortive compromise with Russia.
Arm-chair geopoliticians, from both Poland’s government coalition and opposition circles, have already bid a decadent Europe farewell. They stress that in Poland we’re only too familiar with the Russians and so we know that Putin will not agree to any peacekeeping force. Why should we race in there with our armies, when they would inevitably become a primary target? Let’s concentrate on defense along the line of the San and Bug rivers, not the Dnieper, they insist – though from the perspective of military strategy such a postulate is absurd.
The visit of European and Canadian leaders to Kyiv on the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion was impressive. Perhaps Ukraine’s agreement with the US on the sharing of profits from rare earth mining will now prove more equitable. However, this does not change the overall picture that the US is playing the role of a racketeer demanding extortion for its protection. This brings us back to the days of the Peloponnesian War, described by Thucydides, when Athens behaved in this way. But will the Americans draw fitting conclusions from the fact that Athens lost that war?
There was no Polish representative in Kyiv, although there was an online appearance from Warsaw by President Andrzej Duda, who has evinced a willingness to take on thankless roles. He demanded that Ukraine be given security guarantees, something that sounded altogether duplicitous in view of the fact that Poland ruled out participation in the peacekeeping mission that is supposed to provide these very guarantees.
Our current Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski is frantically trying to justify our passivity towards Ukraine. And so in US media he has claimed that Ukraine can handle Russia on its own and we Poles will not stand in our neighbor’s way. With the support of the Europeans, Ukraine can still pull through to the end of the year, and perhaps even beyond. He is therefore deliberately employing a ‘buck passing’ strategy – shifting responsibility to others and ducking for cover. Minister Sikorski had already proposed that young Ukrainians should be rounded up in EU countries and sent to Kyiv to be conscripted. The Ukrainians are supposed to die for us, not us for them! Even though Ukraine is now running on fumes and begging for help, the Polish Minister is firmly calling for the country to fight on.
Minister Sikorski was invited to Washington to meet US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. I thought he would be criticized for Poland’s evasion of taking more responsibility for Ukraine’s security. Instead, the invitation turned out to be a reward for leaving Ukraine and the European Union in the lurch. True, a person learns lessons throughout life, but it never occurred to me that Poland would participate in a set-up designed to demonstrate the impotence of the European Union.
Minister Sikorski spoke to his counterpart for an hour, after which he stated that he believed the United States was committed to a lasting peace. When asked on Polish television about the stabilization mission in Ukraine, he replied: “That particular topic didn’t come up”. It turns out that the men talked for an hour about the weather. The foreign minister of the country holding the presidency of the European Union thought it was not worthwhile to discuss such a trivial topic as the EU peacekeeping mission in Ukraine.
Marco Rubio, on the other hand, in a communiqué issued after the meeting said that the heads of diplomacy had discussed co-operation between Poland and the US on fair and reciprocal market access, although this is the exclusive competence of the European Commission. Does this foreshadow Poland’s further involvement in the dismantling of EU unity?
President Macron’s efforts make the permanent subordination of Ukraine to the United States more difficult, but does not prevent it. A protectorate is being created, a form of dependency whereby the stronger state conducts the foreign and economic policy of the protected state. Protectorates were created in colonial times on the basis of unequal international agreements imposed on conquered states. As I write these words, it has just been announced that President Volodymyr Zelenski is going to Washington to pay tribute to Donald Trump and ceremonially sign an international agreement on the sharing of profits from the exploitation of Ukraine’s natural resources. So, back to the future.
However, there is no doubt that Prime Minister Donald Tusk took the blue ribbon for this pivot in Polish foreign policy. Tusk had worked hard for it by granting a letter of safe conduct to Benjamin Netanyahu, even before it came to light that the Israeli Prime Minister was not coming to Poland. The award came in the form of praise for Donald Tusk and the wonderful Polish government, expressed by Mark Wallace, who was chairing the CPAC conference in Washington. For Poland’s previously governing party, Law and Justice, which believed it had a monopoly on co-operation with American conservatives, this came as a shock – as it did for liberal circles in Europe, for whom fraternizing with the national conservative right in the US is regarded as a betrayal. It was at this conference that Steve Bannon performed the Roman salute. Donald Tusk has thus becomea valuable ally of Donald Trump. As prime minister of a major country and former president of the European Council, he is in a much better position to defend American interests than the now marginalized Law and Justice Party. And how will this affect the candidates’ chances in the upcoming Polish presidential election this May? Could it be in the interests of the US for a candidate to win who will ensure the smooth running of the government?
Poland is thus returning to the foreign policy of Donald Trump’s first term, when we were one of the closest allies of the United States. However, there is an important difference: back then, we had the conviction that we had a strong moral foundation, defended international law, supported the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, opposed the European Union’s cooperation with Moscow and the Old Continent’s dependence on Russian energy resources. Are matters similar today?
Poland is the largest country in Central Europe, and therefore the countries in the region often align themselves with Warsaw. We have the largest army, spend the most in Europe on armaments, and are regarded as experts on Russia. Other countries will think that Poland is refusing to participate in the peacekeeping mission in Ukraine for good reason. Is it worth taking part in a mission that Poland believes is dangerous and doomed to failure?
It is also not difficult to see that Poland’s policy in this regard coincides with that of Russia. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov categorically opposed the deployment of peacekeepers from NATO countries, even if under an EU or national flag. Minister Sikorski responded to him that “this decision belongs to Ukraine, not Russia”. But of course Ukraine wants such a mission, so the decision to participate in it belongs also to Poland.
Poland is using various smokescreens to divert attention from the core of the matter, i.e., the abandonment of Ukraine. It is calling on the Member States of the European Union to increase expenditures on armaments, which is a good thing in general, but will bear fruit only in a few years’ time and thus does not answer the question of what should be done in the coming weeks. Poland calls for the fortification of the borders of the European Union, by which it suggests that Ukraine should be written off. However, it is plainly in Poland’s interest that the line of demarcation between Russia and Ukraine extend as far as possible from Poland’s eastern border, and that it be guarded by international forces. We also repeat the nonsensical argument that Poland’s possible participation in a peacekeeping mission would be exploited by the Russian propaganda trope that we want to occupy western Ukraine. Ukraine itself, however, has not raised any such concerns, so what this in fact indicates is that Moscow’s propaganda has become a convenient pretext for us to evade our responsibility.
The CPAC conference was also attended by President Andrzej Duda, who thereby joined Donald Trump’s followers, and he was rewarded for this with a brief conversation with the evening’s main protagonist. A matter of no great importance, though one that nevertheless arouses considerable emotion in Poland. Meanwhile, by his presence Andrzej Duda signed on to Donald Trump’s new policy, and lent his weight to the rapprochement with Donald Tusk’s government. He also learned in passing that the US president is not coming to the Three Seas Initiative summit in Warsaw because he is preparing for a visit to… Moscow.
The Polish president’s signing of the capitulation on blocking ambassadorial appointments was one positive outcome of this visit. This was a very good decision, although long overdue. It seems that Prime Minister Donald Tusk has decided to protect the authority of the head of state. Let us hope that this will be the case for the rest of his term of office. The Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs from the Left emphasized with conviction that “the President has done a good job in the US”. Indeed, from the perspective of the government coalition, it is hard to imagine a better outcome.
The deputy speaker of the Sejm, Piotr Zgorzelski, who hails from PSL (the Peasants’ Party), also commented on the new Polish strategy, claiming that the government has determined that it will act against any EU mission in Ukraine because that would interfere with the benefits of co-operation with the Americans. And so it is not Polish troops that should go to Ukraine, but Polish companies in order to do business there. Since the reconstruction of countries usually involves companies from those countries that provide it with security, we are counting on the fact that it is not the European Union but Donald Trump who will decide on the next steps and that he will open the door to the Ukrainian market for Polish companies. You could call it a strategy as straightforward as they come.
The Deputy Speaker of the Sejm also referred to me, or rather to my proposal that Poland should nevertheless consider joining the EU peacekeeping mission in Ukraine: “Let him put on a uniform and go fight. Professor, put on your fatigues and go to battle. There are more important things now than listening to such ideas”. Well, the Polish government’s pro-European stance is to be congratulated. After all, Civic Platform and PSL – the government’s constituent parties – are members of the European People’s Party.
Poland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs in the first and second governments of Mateusz Morawiecki (2018-2020). Graduate of SGPiS (today’s Warsaw School of Economics) and Oxford University. At Poland’s MFA since 1990. From 2008 to 2012 Czaputowicz was the director of the National School of Public Administration.
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