The New Axis of the West – Poland, IMEC, and the Battle for Future Trade Routes

Mateusz MORAWIECKI

Prime Minister of the Republic of Poland 2017-2023.

Ryc.Fabien Clairefond

 

 

IMEC is much more than an economic corridor; it is a foundational pillar for security, growth, and cooperation, providing a vital counterbalance against networks of influence that operate outside the Western value system and civilization. It is a comprehensive strategy designed to accelerate development and securely anchor Europe within a network of authentic alliances, rather than fragile balances.

Every era has its defining route—an artery through which trade flows, empires expand, and futures are shaped. For Rome, it was the Via Appia; for medieval merchants, the Silk Road; and for the industrial age, the Suez, and Panama Canals. Each of these routes shifted the balance of power. In the 21st century, the International Middle East Economic Corridor (IMEC) has the potential to serve as such a route, connecting India, the Middle East, and Europe, and thus creating a new axis of trade and connectivity. This presents a unique opportunity for Poland to transform its historical geographical challenges into strategic advantages.

The current global landscape is precarious, with stability faltering and the foundations of international trade, technology transfer, and investment increasingly strained. China and Russia are actively contesting the established order, with Beijing constructing extensive networks of influence across Africa and the Middle East, while Russia resorts to destabilization tactics, deploying missiles, encouraging migration, propagating disinformation, and exerting energy pressure.

Europe finds itself in a perilous position. Competitiveness is undermined by technological concessions, and security is compromised by an outdated belief in perpetual peace. The world has transformed, with emerging waves of illegal migration, digital disruption, and hybrid threats no longer serving as mere warnings but as actual tools aimed at destabilizing social cohesion, eroding public trust, and weakening the West’s identity as a community grounded in shared values.

In this context, mere reaction is insufficient; decisive and swift action is imperative. The future of geopolitics hinges on trade route dynamics, with the strategic flow of goods, data, energy, and technology determining national influence and global relevance.

Transforming Geographical Challenges into Geopolitical Advantages

Poland’s geography has often been described as a curse—a flat expanse devoid of natural borders, positioned between Russia and Germany. While this is a valid observation, as aptly noted by Peter Zeihan, the notion of a “geography of success” is not immutable. Maps can change, and trajectories can shift.

Poland now stands at a pivotal moment where it can redefine its geographic destiny. Its central location in Europe, access to the Baltic Sea, and proximity to Scandinavia and the Balkans are not liabilities but significant advantages, creating substantial infrastructure potential. As Prime Minister, I recognized that if Poland aspired to be a leading state, it must leverage infrastructure as a catalyst for development.

We embarked on significant strategic and local investments, not merely to establish special economic zones or attract foreign capital for low-cost assembly but to acquire knowledge, disseminate technology, and forge comparative advantages. Infrastructure transcends mere concrete and steel; it serves as a political tool in the broader game for future security.

This strategic impulse also inspired the largest military modernization in Poland’s history, prioritizing not just security, but also agility and bolstering our status as a cornerstone of NATO’s eastern flank. In that same spirit, we initiated the Trilateral Initiative, reshaping the continent’s geopolitical center of gravity towards our region while reinforcing the Western system of values, technology, and security.

Why is this important? Because a formidable military today not only defends but secures vital corridors like IMEC. This signals to investors that Poland represents not just potential profitability but also resilience. Hence, defense spending has risen to 4.3% of GDP, maximizing commitment among NATO allies and developing our domestic defense industry.

Such achievements were made possible by my government’s public finance reforms, which restored market confidence and allowed us to prioritize security over mere crisis management.

Poland: A Regional Hub and Gateway to a New Europe

Poland possesses the necessary attributes to emerge as a northern hub for IMEC, acting as a logistical and digital bridge between Asia and Scandinavia. However, our contribution extends beyond mere transit. Collaborative efforts with the US to develop nuclear energy—particularly GE Hitachi’s small modular reactors (SMRs) and Westinghouse’s larger designs—are essential to bolster regional energy independence and infrastructure.

The challenges we faced in recent years—from migration crises in 2021 to digital assaults—demonstrate that Poland can not only design but effectively safeguard strategic systems. We have responded vehemently to hybrid threats, establishing ourselves as proactive protectors of European order. Such capabilities must be integrated into the IMEC framework, ensuring that future corridors remain efficient and secure.

Simultaneously, the US is heavily investing in digital infrastructure and AI security from India to the Middle East. It is critical that this momentum reaches Central Europe, which is poised for growth and technology transfer. Thus, establishing a transatlantic AI ecosystem with shared standards and interoperability is a vital endeavor. Poland can position itself as the pivotal link—a connector between America, India, and neighboring countries.

The latest RAND Corporation report highlights the urgent need for an increased US military presence in Poland—not merely as a gesture but as a cornerstone of a sustained deterrence strategy. Only those capable of safeguarding infrastructure and values will assume partnerships in the evolving balance of power, and Poland stands ready to fulfill this role.

The Necessity of Internal Resilience for Security

In a world where strategic trade, data, and energy routes determine advantage, information channels have emerged as equally crucial. The wars of the 21st century revolve around trust and truth. Defending democracy has become a tangible front in the fight for transparency and institutional sovereignty. Today, digital manipulation, disinformation, and extraneous financing of politics within the democratic framework pose threats as severe as military adversities.

Poland encountered this firsthand in 2023 and during recent presidential elections, where we faced illegal, foreign-funded campaigns promoting a liberal-left political faction, as established by data from Meta and Google.

This new form of warfare—covert yet hugely destabilizing—aims to manipulate public opinion, install compliant governments, and weaken national sovereignty. The implications are significant, leading to reputational harm, capital flight, diminished investment, and widespread public dissatisfaction. Accordingly, modern security encompasses safeguarding public discourse, the digital ecosystem, and democratic governance. Initiatives like IMEC, the Three Seas Initiative, and strategic alliances form one aspect of this endeavor, while internal resilience to protect our model of civilization constitutes the other.

Revitalizing Europe

IMEC can serve as both a geopolitical and economic catalyst for Europe—a conduit for growth, technology transfer, and strategic investments. However, in order to actualize this new structure, we must first address our internal disarray—a situation that is, regrettably, alarming.

According to an International Monetary Fund report, the European internal market increasingly establishes barriers rather than enhancing trade integration. In practice, the EU faces ‘invisible tariffs’: 45% on goods and 110% on services. Trade impediments between Germany and Spain within the EU can surpass those existing between two US states.

Hence, four essential reforms are urgently needed:

1. Genuine freedom to provide services—the promised deliverable of a Single Market.

2. Deregulation—less bureaucracy and greater trust. Europe cannot maintain the most stringent AI regulations while failing to develop AI.

3. Revival of SMEs—small and medium enterprises being the bedrock of the middle class and European stability.

4. An Industrial Strategy—a “Designed and Crafted in Europe 2035” program, focusing on AI automation and dual-use technologies.

However, reforms demand more than political will; they necessitate capital. Europe possesses ample resources but is paradoxically failing to utilize them effectively. Over €8 trillion is currently inactive in European households’ accounts, and both the Banking Union and the Capital Markets Union remain entangled in political stalemate and regulatory inertia.

Yet, straightforward measures could unleash real capital. According to OECD, combating tax havens could yield an additional €150–240 billion per annum for Europe. If all EU nations emulated Poland by closing VAT loopholes, we could reclaim another €150 billion for common resources. This is not merely statistical—it signifies potential funding for new infrastructure, innovation, energy transitions, and social modernization. These are all critical future investments.

Ultimately, this transcends simple economic cycles. It concerns rejuvenating the Western development model and restoring capitalism to its foundational purpose—creating wealth for the majority, not merely a privileged few. Only an inclusive, resilient, and solidarity-based capitalism can hope to endure over the next decade and revitalize Europe.

Intermarium: Europe’s New Geopolitical Axis

The Three Seas Initiative is evolving into a role reminiscent of the transatlantic axis, becoming Europe’s new geopolitical backbone. For decades following World War II, the stability of the West hinged on the US military presence and NATO assurances—architectural frameworks of peace that some now seek to overlook.

The concept of “strategic autonomy” advocated by certain Western powers, in an effort to maintain neutrality between the US and China, is an illusion. The global landscape is accelerating; Europe must evolve from being a pawn in the geopolitical game to an active player. This entails fostering stronger alliances with the US, Canada, India, Japan, South Korea, and Australia—nations deeply committed to sustaining a stable world order.

The Three Seas Initiative connects countries from the Baltic to the Adriatic and the Black Sea, uniting nations with common interests beyond mere geography. This includes NATO’s new members, Finland and Sweden, Ukraine facing Russian hostilities, and Turkey, which remains militarily robust and acutely aware of Kremlin threats. In this context, the strategic importance of our region continues to grow.

It is within this intersecting nexus of trade, energy, and data routes that a new growth center can emerge. As the western terminus of the Asia–Europe–US corridor, IMEC and the Three Seas Initiative can jointly propel the modernization and resilience of the Old Continent.

The new American strategy—frequently characterized as offshore balancing or power redistribution—is already taking form. Strengthening the Intermarium aligns perfectly with this strategy: stabilizing NATO’s eastern flank and establishing a resilient geopolitical order.

However, this must not be a unilateral initiative. For this vision to be realized, the US and the West must fortify crucial allies through technology transfer, shared standards, and operational interoperability. This transcends mere alliance; it embodies a collective responsibility for the future of global civilization.

Strategic Crossroads

The West’s reaction time has been far too slow. Russian aggression in Ukraine and China’s escalating ambitions, alongside its advancements in military and technological capabilities, are no longer matters for mere concern but an urgent alarm. The world has advanced, and nations seeking stability, including India, Japan, the US, and EU member states, must respond to the rising wave of authoritarianism from Beijing and its ally in Moscow.

In this setting, IMEC is much more than an economic corridor; it is a foundational pillar for security, growth, and cooperation, providing a vital counterbalance against networks of influence that operate outside the Western value system and civilization. It is a comprehensive strategy designed to accelerate development and securely anchor Europe within a network of authentic alliances, rather than fragile balances.

We are at a critical juncture. Now is the time for decisive action; otherwise, we risk succumbing to geopolitical inertia. We must either forge an alliance of resilient and sovereign states or permit external actors to seize control. IMEC is a test of our bravery, our collaborative ability, and our belief in the West as a civilizational undertaking.

Poland’s evolving position, the resilience of our economy, and shared interests with the US, the UK, Italy, Romania, and Scandinavia position us as a natural cornerstone of this new balance of power. Poland can serve not only as the anchor of this new cooperative axis but also as its driving force. History does not wait; it favors those who know their destination and possess the resolve to reach it.

Mateusz Morawiecki

SOURCE: https://wszystkoconajwazniejsze.pl/